We have had a tradition since 2005. Every new year we have a posting on the predictions for the year ahead for our beloved open source CMS and community. Sometimes this posting went up in december, sometimes in January. But never in February.

Time to start a new tradition, predict the year ahead from February on :-)

Leave a comment if you do think that blogging will get hip again, RSS will gain new ground. What will the roll of the Drupal Association be in the new year? Where will the next DrupalCon be? Will the community grow and in what direction? API first, customer first, mobile first?

Polish your crystal ball and tell us what the future of Drupal wil be.

If you need some inspiration, take a look at 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.2016 and
2017.

And yes, this posting was once month late. Apologies. Feel free to predict when the new prediction posting will go up on d.o :-)

Comments

Michael-IDA’s picture

Hi Bert,

You should have posted in December, then you’d have gotten all the recent comments that hit last years thread posted here…

On the whole I’m pessimistic about Drupal 8 being used by, or useful to, it’s historic user base. D8 is great for Acquia size development firms, but for the regular Joe/Joette site builder it’s complexity is a show stopper.

Just the change from procedural to object orientation removed 50 - 80% of the programmer base, these are the people who USE to work on Drupal code. The number of D7 modules not being ported to D8 shows this clearly. Metal Toad did a really nice graph of D8’s adoption rate dropping off a cliff. https://www.metaltoad.com/blog/sluggish-drupal-8-adoption-lags-even-d6 The comments tell the story.

Add to that, the ‘expulsions’ of both Karoly Négyesi (chx) and Larry Garfield (Crell) have left many with the opinions:

When Dries Buytaert, the founder of Drupal, and Megan Sanicki, the Executive Director of the Drupal Association, stabbed Larry Garfield in the back for “thought crimes,” they stabbed us all in the back.

When Buytaert claims to have evidence that he cannot disclose, he is utterly in the wrong.

It took me half a dozen hours reading on each to be able to make an informed decision, and I found the number of blatant fan boy posts (on both sides) depressing. Depressing in that the Drupal sphere seems to have lost much of it’s tolerance, openness, and transparency.

# # #

The DA will continue being not completely open or transparent and will take more negative public image hits like it did over:

- The intentional destruction of the Jobs group for the self enrichment of the DA,
- The abandonment of the D.O forums,
- The continual lack of any relevant advertising options, and
- The continual lack of any relevant user to user contribution method.

The DA will also continue it’s not so hidden message of, “If you’re not a huge player, shove off.”

Some Links, Google for plenty of others:

https://www.drupal.org/drupalorg/blog/drupal.org-2015-advertising-initia...
https://www.drupal.org/forum/general/general-discussion/2015-12-27/the-f...
https://www.drupal.org/node/2536122
https://groups.drupal.org/drupal-jobs
https://www.drupal.org/project/drupalorg/issues/2138397

# # #

My crystal ball is biased as I WANT Drupal to be a well adopted and globally used CMS. No DUH!, I make my entire living off Managed Drupal Hosting and Drupal enhancement work. But… What I feel at this point?

- D8 is used by large enterprise.
- DA membership declines.
- Many/Most abandon Drupal entirely when D7 hits end of life.
- Some migrate to the Drupal 7 port, Backdrop CMS.
- Drupal fan boys/girls continue with “D8 is great” while ignoring all statistics.

# # #

I’ll most likely be one of those moving all my clients to Backdrop. https://backdropcms.org/ As it’s a simple conversion from D7 to Backdrop and any existing D7 module can be easily migrated to Backdrop. (Well, duh, it’s an almost straight D7 port.)

And, unless the DA changes radically in the next 3 months, I won’t be renewing my organizational membership when it comes due.

Sorry for the depressing post.

Best Regards All,
Michael

AaronMcHale’s picture

Can't say I agree when it comes to complexity or OO, the majority of programming these days is OO based and my experience of working with D8 so far has been much nicer than previous versions, both from a UI and site building perspective but also from a developer perspective.  I expect that we'll see more of the PHP world moving to OO, just look at all of the OO frameworks out there such as Larvel that have gained major adoption in recent years.  In fact my message to developers is, known procedural and functional, but learn OO or get left behind.

I think it's important to consider the slower adoption of Drupal 8 is probably not due to a fault of Drupal 8, instead there are probably a few factors:

  • Drupal 8 has major architectural changes compared with previous versions and so it may take longer for modules and sites to update.
  • As a result of this sites that are planning to move will likely take the opportunity to re-evaluate their site and build it again from the ground up, that's what we're doing with the move from D7 to D8

Despite that I think there's a lot to be optimistic about!  The focus on improving the user experience and core features to support content such as the Media Initiative and the inclusion of Views in core will likely bring more people to Drupal as it will be able to provide an experience that can better complete with the likes of WordPress.

The community doesn't seem to lack people, we still have a very active and engaged core developer and user base, just look at the last Drupal Con, the up and coming Drupal Camp London has hundreds (possibly thousands) of people attending, and other local events across Europe this year will likely show that people are still very much engaged with Drupal and excited about the future.

So I actually think there's a lot to be optimistic about, sure there's more that could be done and I'm not justifying everything that might have happened or will happen, I just think there's more to be excited about than concerned about.

g089h515r806’s picture

February is Chinese new year.

1,Drupal 8 adoption still increace.

2, the whole Drupal adoption decrease

3, More people choose backdrop or wordpress as replacement.

4, many small Drupal workshop  disappear.

Chinese drupal tutorials Think in Drupal

kreynen’s picture

In 2018, the DA will acknowledge that D8 is their Lisa... a great product, but too expensive for most people to even consider buying.  A bold decision is made to stay the course and wait for the market and community to catch up.  Rather than trying to bridge the gap and bring the existing community along, the DA announces a change to Drupal's normal EOL process.  Core development of D7 is frozen for anything but critical security issues, but D7 projects will still be packaged with a supported status on Drupal.org.  Documentation is split making it easier to search for D7 LTS vs. D8+.  Forums are no longer used for D8+.  D8+ development is moved to Bitbucket.

Large organizations in sectors like higher education are asked to help fund the LTS effort... and do.  Even at $50K a year, LTS of D7 costs a fraction of what migrating to their DaaS offerings to D8 or anything else. 

The D7 LTS changes appease much of community and the reduces the number of users jumping ship to Backdrop or WordPress.

The DA stops packaging downloads for D8 projects and acknowledges that downloading, expanding and uploading a D8 module to a host just isn't a thing.  Unless you are maintaining your codebase with Composer, D8+ is no longer recommended.  

The reduced pressure to see organizations migrate to D8+ allows development priorities to shift.  The modern development tools and OO codebase continues to accelerate the pace of improvement and change for D8+ to the point it hardly resembles D7. 

Organizations still using D7 felt less pressure to evaluate alternatives to Drupal.  While they continue running D7 for existing site, they start using D8 for new, more ambitious projects.

WordPress struggles to deal with the security and licensing issues.  High profile hacks and lawsuits force many WordPress using organizations to looks at alternatives.  The D8 install that can be spun up on many top cloud hosts includes a demo that sells management and marketing folks on Drupal.  A smaller, framework only build stripped of all the bells and bloat is officially supported that appeals to developers and security conscious sysadmins.

Install profiles shift to extending the framework only build which allows for much cleaner, more focused applications base layers.  Developers who've never used Drupal before read about how much time they can save using this base profiles.  D8+ adoption for non-CMS projects replaces the contrib community that stuck with D7 LTS.

I can dream, can't I?